Will Pay TV keep paying for movies?

A follow-up to yesterday's post on Box Office. Variety is reporting that HBO, Showtime, and Starz, the 3 major movie pay channels are looking to re-negotiate their deals with the Studios. According the article, the pay networks have blanket deals with the studios that require them to take whatever the studios make, regardless of whether it is any good. It says the average film goes for $7M, but something like Pirates 2 could go for as high as $20M. The pay networks are looking to decrease their reliance on Hollywood through their own original programming including series like The Sopranos and Weeds. Now the networks are stepping up their efforts in making their own movies. The article states that megaplayer John Malone's new ownership of DirecTV will give him extra juice in these negotiations. The networks are arguing that the introduction of new windows such as the iPod before movies hit pay cable are reducing the value of the movies to them.

But is this really true? How is the iPod any different from DVD in this way? In fact, the DVD is universally penetrated while the iPod is still relatively small. Everyone is using the iPod as an excuse for something as if no other home video technology existed before it. Its a very weak argument and one I'm sure the networks will lose. Even HBO, which has been the most aggressive about original content still gets 70% of its content from the studios. So the leverage is definitely in the studios hands. I think this will end much like the much ballyhooed DVD pricing standoff with retailers, the studios will win. HBO makes some good TV, that is for sure, but it has yet to produce anything approaching a Hollywood blockbuster film, and until it does, it won't really be a threat. Reality is, they can't fund a blockbuster. They are really going after the low and middle grossing titles that draw questionable ratings for them. If they can replace that with their own content that is hopefully better, it allows them to differentiate and drive viewership.

All this reinforces the wisdom, again, of Iger's film strategy. Fewer films, better films gives the networks far less to bitch about. But it does raise an interesting financial question. If Disney is cutting its film output from 18 films per year to 10 and you use Variety's average pay TV price number of $7M, that means that Disney's revenue from pay TV would decline from $126M to $70M. That means Disney would have make almost double - the $20M Pirates rate Variety referred to - for every film it puts out to comp the revenue. So it also shows why Disney has to open new windows and methods of distribution. Iger has said publicly that he expects iTunes to generate $50M for Disney in its first 12 months with movies. Let's assume that movies on iPod are just getting started and iTV will boost things as well to the point that this number doubles next year. That's a tidy sum that starts to compare to the pay TV numbers variety is talking about, if there's no cannibalization of DVDs, which there probably is.

But here's another way to look at it. If HBO is really paying $20M for Pirates 2 and they have 40M subs as they claim on their website, that would mean that each HBO sub is paying 50 cents for Pirates 2. That's the cheapest rate in town considering you have to pay $10 at the box office, $20 for the DVD, and $14 for the download. How low do these networks think it should be?

"Golden" Mary Blair at A-HAA

A-HAA has tracked down and posted this wonderful images from Mary Blair's days with Little Golden Books including her own Golden Book Classic, Little Wishes, which has been out of print for 40 years. Enjoy!

The Year In Hollywood

Hollywood Reporter has this story that it spins as positive about the rebound of the box office in '06. But frankly, I don't see it. Here are 3 of their charts that pretty much tell the whole story.

Box office revenues are back up but not above 2004 levels. If you look at it, BO has basically been flat since 2002. Meanwhile, the number of tickets was basically flat to last year at 3% growth but still 12% below 2002 levels. Revenue increased 5% driven in part by another increase in ticket prices. And here's something interesting, ticket prices have increased 13% since 2002, but as I said admissions have fallen 12%, which basically leaves industry revenue in 2006 at 99% of what it was in 2002. Could it be that rising ticket prices are keeping consumer away from theaters in proportion to the ticket price increase? If so, would decreasing ticket prices increase admissions? Is there a Wal-Mart strategy for movies out there? (Yes, there is. Its called iTunes.)

The other stuff is not very encouraging. Average opening weekend, per theater average, and second week drop are all down. There were more wide releases (1k screens or more) but fewer ultrawide releases (3k screens or more).

So now you can see the wisdom of Iger's "less is more" strategy. In a flat market, its smart to focus your resources and go for market share, international distribution, and distribution through other channels such as online.

Hints of Pirate Island

Its been announced that Tom Sawyer's Island will be permanently transformed to become a Pirates of the Caribbean Island. This has created a lot of debate among Disney park fans, many of them totally opposed to this change. They see it as another example of the soulless Einserian synergy and a defilement of a classic attraction personally designed by Walt.

But those people are wrong. Tom Sawyer Island is a ghost town. The Fort has been closed for a long time and the whole island is rundown. Even on the busiest days for the Park, the Island is empty. Redwood Trails in California Adventure is more busy on any given day than Tom Sawyer. And I seriously doubt that sprucing up the island under the Tom Sawyer theme would make much of difference in attendance.

I like vintage Disney as much as anyone else, but this whole philosophy of mummifying the Park and the brand is anti-Disney at its core. After all, wasn't it Walt who said that Disneyland would never be finished as long as there is imagination in the world? But more than that, the Park is there for the enjoyment of the guests. The guests vote with their feet and they are not voting for TSI. There's just too much other stuff that is more fun to do. But space in Disneyland is at a real premium and everything should be plussed up as much as it can be. If changing TSI to a Pirates theme is something that more guests will visit and more guests will enjoy, what's wrong with that? Frankly. I think park enthusiasts should be excited that something that started as a ride in the Park has grown so big that it now has come home in a bigger way. I think it also helps round out New Orleans Square into a real land.

But enough of this, what will the new Pirates Island be like? Some past park developments may suggest where things are going. Real park enthusiasts - or anyone who visited Fantasyland before its makeover in 1983 - will recall that Skull Rock and Captain Hook's ship from Peter Pan once inhabited the space now occupied by the Dumbo ride.



While Skull Rock and the ship are now longer in Disneyland, they became part of Disneyland Paris' Adventure Isle. A large play environment similar in purpose to TSI.





Could Skull Rock be ready for a come back in Disneyland?

Rockin'?

LaughingPlace reports that Disney is teaming with the Red Hot Chili Peppers to make some of its rides rock.

For a limited time (from January 3 through April 26, 2007), guests will experience Space Mountain like never before. The high-speed interstellar adventure, that has captivated Disneyland guests since the 1970s, will temporarily have an all-new twist. Rockin' Space Mountain fans will find the attraction sporting new technology that features illuminated dancing rock fans, more than 200 lights brightening the track and a brand-new, customized soundtrack by Red Hot Chili Peppers. The band's famous song, "Higher Ground," which was a 1989 hit version of the Stevie Wonder original tune, will create an out-of-this-world rock adventure. Along with new technology and lighting, all systems are a go.

Riders of Rockin' California Screamin' at Disney's California Adventure will also twist and turn to a new soundtrack. With a specially customized version of Red Hot Chili Peppers 1999 hit "Around the World," guests will rock through the attraction's 6,000 feet of track. The four-minute ride is the world's longest steel looping roller coaster and takes guests from zero to 55 miles per hour in just four seconds.

Is it just me, or is the whole "rockin'" thing so early '90s. I'm not sure people want things to rock anymore. And the Chili Peppers are a little fossilized. If you're going to go the "rockin'" route, why not go all the way and use Pink Floyd and install some laser lights.

Another question - is Disneyland really wanting to attract the stoner/LCD/shroom crowd? Because that's who comes to things that are "rockin'".

Beautiful Bambi art

The ASIFA-Hollywood Animation Archive blog has posted from wonderful artwork from Bambi including character designs from Frank Thomas and Marc Davis.

Pixar artist takes on Hindu deities

Pixar animator Sanjay Patel has a little side project, his new book, The Little Book of Hindu Deities: From the Goddess of Wealth to the Sacred Cow. Illustrated in a very Mary Blair-ish style, it looks like a fun read.

(Thanks Boing Boing!)

AACS - Hacked?

Looks like AACS - the DRM for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray - may have been hacked. That didn't take long. When I think of all the time that has gone into AACS, its just proves how futile DRM is. All of this stuff is going to get hacked because there's always someone smarter than you are and the more restrictive the DRM, the more people will want to hack it.

Does that mean the industry should forget about DRM? No. Unfortunately, without it, the entertainment industry would collapse into an orgy of piracy. But I think it does mean that the industry needs to focus on consumer friendly solutions to content protection so that there will be less incentive to hack this stuff or to use the hack when it inevitably happens.

Twas the Voice Over Before Christmas

You don't know their names or their faces, but you know their voices. The most well recognized voice over actors in America get together for a group reading of Twas the Night Before Christmas. Its a treat! See how many characters they slipped in there.

If you enjoy it, consider giving to their charity Food on Foot.

(Thanks TV Squad!)

Christmas with The Colonel

What? You think Starbucks was the first food joint with a Christmas album? See this and other great vintage Christmas images on Flckr after the jump.

"Geniuses, bring me my iStool!"

Allegedly, Steve Jobs has a special three legged stool that is the only thing he will sit on. It is in his office at Apple, and he insists that it be moved into the conference room of any meetings he must attend. Be on the look out for it at the keynote. I just think its funny that someone would be so particular about a stool. You can just see him barking at people to bring it or yelling that its not there when he wants it. Too funny.

Uncensored "Dick in a Box"

NBC had YouTube take down the copy of SNL's "Dick in a Box" that a posted last week, but in turn posted an official uncensored version. Here it is in its unedited glory. Enjoy.

Santa: This is for JG

Anyone who knows him knows that JG is a huge Pinocchio fan and collector. So Santa, if you're listening, here's what to bring JG this Christmas. Its a book called "Walt Disney's Pinocchio" that was published by Random House. Only 100 copies were ever printed and has become the most sought after - and expensive at $3500 - book by Disney collectors. Cohen Books and Collectables has #85 available and here is their description.

WALT DISNEY'S PINOCCHIO RANDOM HOUSE LIMITED TO 100 COPIES Walt Disney's version of Pinocchio, Based on the famous story by Collodi was first published by Random, House , New York as a limited Edition. This is copy number 85 of the original american edition. Only one hundred copies have been printed. This book is spiral bound and contains the following. 1) OVERALL CONTINUITY OUTLINE OF THE MOVIE DESCRIBING EACH SEQUENCE. 2) STORY BOARD PICTURES DEPICTING EACH SEQUENCE (204 pictures) 3) THREE DIMENSIONAL STATUETTES ( 14 pictures) 4) CHARACTER MODEL SHEETS OF ALL THE CHARACTERS. (66 pictures)

(Thanks Disney History blog!)

Trump talks copious shit about Rosie

Rosie bashed Trump on The View for the whole Miss America episode. That REALLY pissed Trump off, so he has gone on a shit talking campaign. She calls Rosie "fat" and "ugly" threatens to sue her and threatens to send one of his model friends to steal her girlfriend.

Do either of these people have a publicist to stop them from doing this stuff?

iPhone: I Think Different

Cisco announced its iPhone VoIP device today, which means Apple does not own the iPhone trademark. What lawyer at Apple dropped the ball on that one? Anyway, Gizmodo made light of the whole thing above. Hilarious.

"Its my _____ in a box"

Andy Samberg does it again! This time with Justin Timberlake in a hilarious boy band video about what they are giving to that someone special this X-Mas. If you haven't seen it, you better hurry because it won't be on YouTube long.

The Creepiest Fast Food Mascots of All TIme

Fast food mascots can be scary. Witness above the original Ronald McDonald invented by a pre-Today Show weatherman, Willard Scott. Check out all the other scary ones after the jump...

How Quickly Bush Forgot

Very good editorial by Jackson Diehl. The basic gist is this:

Despite Bush claims that "freedom is on the march" and that we will no longer support dictatorships in the name of stability and our interests, the Bush administration is doing exactly that in Azerbaijan. Its President Ilham Aliyeva has realized that he can curb democracy and arrest his political opponents as long as he provides a stable source of energy to the West and cooperates on security issues. So President Aliyeva's wife gets an invite for tea with Laura Bush while the husband stays home and cozies up to Putin.

Its just another case in point. America will never be free or secure until we are energy independent. The greatest country in the history of the Earth has become subject to tinpot dictators with a gas pump. Why George Bush has actively resisted any real attempts to become energy independent still baffles me, but it is THE agenda that the new Congress and the next President must take up. This is the #1 strategic issue facing our country.

Brer Rabbit commerical for American Motors

At today's Disney, it is a hard and fast rule that Disney characters cannot shill. But it was not always so. Here's a car commercial for American Motors featuring Brer Rabbit hawking the wonders of air conditioning.

O Holy Night

I have been pretty on the fence about Studio 60 since week 2. But the ending of the show this week was some of the best television I have seen in a long time. It was the culmination of an almost unconnected subplot about all the musicians in Hollywood calling in sick. Turned out that that there were a lot of displaced musicians from New Orleans in town and their friends wanted to give them a chance to sub so they could join the TV musicians union and collect a unemployment check before Christmas. Danny, the show producer, found out about it and planned something else. He had all the New Orleans musicians before a version of "O Holy Night" standing in front of a video screen showing pictures of a Katrina-destroyed New Orleans. Watch the video footage and it will move you to tears.

This version of "O Holy Night" is the best I have ever heard. It Is available for download for free in MP3 format here.

The musicians on the show were real displaced musicians from New Orleans. They played to raise awareness for Tipitina's Foundation which is fund for displaced New Orleans musicians and is trying to revive the music culture of the Big Easy.

Seasons Greetings from The Walt Disney Studios

I discovered a new blog that is incredible. 2719 Hyperion has great vintage Disney stuff daily and good analysis of the parks today. Every day for the last week or so, they have been posting vintage Christmas cards from the Disney Studios over the years. Here are my favs:

Disney Geek-out

The other night, I had dinner at the Napa Rose, with a bunch of folks from Pixar. I thought I was a Disney geek, but sheesh, these guys are like in the highest of all possible echelons. For example, I like Mary Blair and consider myself fairly in the know just for knowing who she is, but these guys have been to her son's house, gone through Mary's archives and helped John Canemaker research the book about her. Now that's in deep! These guys were telling stories of hanging with Frank and Ollie and Tim Burton. Unbelievable.

They also talked of their love for "Moochie". Moochie was a child actor named Kevin Corcoran. He played a secondary character on the Mickey Mouse Club named Moochie. but was never an official Mouseketeer. He then played a character name Moochie in The Adventures of Spin and Marty. Then went on to play a character named Moochie in The Shaggy Dog. After that, he was in a lot of other Disney stuff, including Old Yeller and went on to become a producer of Disney films as an adult.

So, I'm sure my dinner companions will be totally geeking out soon because Disney has a pile of great new DVDs for those who love classic Disney. First up, all new Walt Disney Treasures with "The Complete Pluto", "More Silly Symphonies", "The Hardy Boys", and "Your Host Walt Disney", a title focusing on Walt's days a host on the Disneyland TV show which morphed into The Wonderful World of Disney.

But wait, that's not all, there's a new DVD series called Walt Disney's Legacy. Not sure why this is separate from Treasures. But some great titles are on the way. First are the True-Life Adventures nature series, the film series that gave inspiration to Adventureland and won Disney several Oscars. They are releasing "Wonders of the World", "Lands of Exploration", "Creatures of the Wild", and "Nature's Mysteries". Then they are releasing "The Adventures of Oswald", "Disneyland: Secrets, Stories, & Magic" and best of all, "Destino" the Walt Disney/Salivdor Dali collaboration that was unfinished until Roy brought the project back to life just before famously resigning from Disney.

Hillarious Sexual Consent video

Sometimes, you need to call in the lawyers. Funny. Must watch.