Hangover

Super Duper Tuesday is over and it resolved very little. The day that pundits proclaimed it would be all over has passed with no decision on the Democratic side and only a little more resolution on the Republican side.

Obama beat Hillary in elected delegates - 603 to 590! He has closed the gap with her on ground that was hers to loose. He won a surprise victory in Connecticut - 51% to 47%. And he narrowed Hillary's win in New Jersey to a 10 point gap. These were supposed to be states, along with New York, that she won with huge margins. That didn't happen. And he did the same thing in California, closing that to a 10 point gap, in another state she was supposed to win hands down. He won more states than her. He won 14 of the 22 states up for grabs. She won only 8, but they were big states. He won in the North and the South. The East and the West. He won blacks hands down and also won whites and young people. Where he did not do as well were seniors and hispanics, who hurt him considerably in California. But any way you look at it, it was a big night for Obama and it was NOT the coronation Hillary was hoping for. But he also did not pull ahead of her. Yet.

Last night, Hillary's agents were out in force trying to spin this as a win for her. Paul Begala was on CNN as an analyst where he was supposed to be an objective observer and not her talking head said "Call Super Tuesday for Hillary!" Fortunately, he got called out on that and I don't think anyone can say the numbers bare that out.

Obama's problem now is in the Super Delegates. There she wins hands down, 193 to 106. That puts her at a total of 783 to 709. Super Delegates are basically party dignitaries, mostly elected officials, that are not elected and can vote however they want. If things keep going the way they are and the candidates go to the election split, I cannot imagine that the part elite would put her over the top. That would tear the part apart. But Howard Dean is really stupid, so who knows. This could get very ugly between the Super Delegates and the potential of Florida and Michigan getting counted. There could be a lot of backroom dealing that keeps Obama from getting the nod.

The other thing that strikes me is that I do not think Hillary, if she gets the nod, cannot make Obama the VP candidate. They have split the party. And there are a lot of people, like me, that might go for McCain if she gets the nod and Obama doesn't come along because I am still so pissed at her from South Carolina.

But neither Dem candidate has even half the delegates they need, so this is going to go on for quite a while until someone breaks through.

On to the Republicans. Its obvious at this point that McCain is going to be the nominee. He's got a 2 to 1 delegate advantage over Romney and he only needs to get 1191 to win vs Democrats who need over 2000. And with so many GOP contests as winner takes all, he is only going to extend that lead. But the big story of the night was that it was not a coronation for him either. In a big surprise, Huckabee came back very strongly in the south where he won Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, West Virginia, and his home state of Arkansas. So he's staying in the race for a few more rounds and that's bad news for Romney. I think Huckabee may even have a chance in the big delegate state of Texas.

All this makes Romney look pretty bad. Over the last week, he has been stomping around claiming that he is the real conservative candidate and he would be winning all these states if Huckabee were not out there sucking up his vote, as if he had a god given right to those voters. What an arrogant prick! The South taught him a thing or two. Let me tell you something folks as someone who is from a conservative bible thumping Southern household. The South will not vote for a Mormon. You are talking to people who think that the Bible is the literal perfect and complete word of God. They don't believe that Jesus vacationed with the Indians. Romney just ain't going to work in the South and that's a huge part of the conservative base which he claims he owns. As long as Huckabee is in this, and make no mistake he is in this now, Romney is screwed in the South.

Romney did win a few states. He won Alaska and Montana, aka places with no delegates. He won Colorado, Minnesota, and North Dakota. And - surprise, surprise - he won Massachusetts and Utah. Now that we are past all the states that have a lot of Mormons or where he or his dad were Governors, his chances are not looking so hot. Make no mistake. This was a rout for Romney. From here on out, this is about ego for him. And how much longer will Ann let him keep gambling the family fortune on a pipe dream.

McCain is winning the nomination. That is clear now. The only question is whether Huckabee will be his nominee.