What's going on at Apple?

Apple has announced a lot of new products and updates over the past several months. All new iPods in Fall, then updated Mac Pros, then Time Capsule, Apple TV Take 2, and MacBook Air, then refreshed Shuffles, and now updated MacBooks. So almost the entire line-up has been touched in the last 6 months. Its uncharacteristic for Apple to update so much in such a short period. So what do they have up their sleeve? They need a big wow thing for everyone to talk about at the end of the year. So what is it?

I think we are going to be looking at a new iPhone, possibly an iPhone Nano of some kind but definitely a 3G iPhone. I'm not sure what will happen on the iPod line. There seems little reason to touch the Touch other than capacity (more please) and the iPod Nano is pretty good where its at too. I could see a mid-sized iPod in there with a screen bigger than the Nano but smaller than Touch. I could also see a Nano with the multitouch screen and that may be their big play for the end of the year. I think Shuffle is what it is for a while. They also need something on the high end to bring the multi-touch screen to Classic. Classic has been selling better than expectations because of the capacity that Touch doesn't have.

The MP3 market is slowing down. Apple needs to push portable video and apps. To push apps, that means they need to get to a common aspect ratio on their products and a common interface, ie the touch screen, all compatible with the SDK. The future of iPod is apps, apps, apps. And so that if what they will have to pushing this year and it will impact the hardware by the end of the year. So the more I think about it, if they do a multi-touch Nano, they have to do a multi-touch Nano phone and I bet we will see both by the end of the year.

I think the rest of the product line is as is for the rest of the year...unless they enter some new category we haven't thought about.

Hillary's (gone) mad

Anyone who pays attention to politics may have noticed Hillary's crazy "shame on you" outburst this weekend followed by her mocking of Obama saying that he thinks that the clouds will open and the heavens will shine down on us and we will all be perfect. Its a big change of tone for someone who was so honored to be on stage with Barack only a few days ago. What gives?

Hillary not going to down without a fight. But is this really her best shot? Every week we have been subjected to a different crazy, angry rant from Hillary. I might be pissed if someone suggested I pimped out my daughter too, but there have been others - many others. Every time she does this, her negatives go through the roof because we are all reminded of what it will be like if she gets in the White House. Who wants this angry, crazy, foaming at the mouth, win at all costs stuff for 4 years? Does anyone want the national mother waging her finger and chewing our ass on a daily basis? Who does she think she's convincing with this stuff?

And by the way Hillary, Barack's not distorting your record. You were for NAFTA before you were against. That he's killing you with NAFTA, is that really his fault? True or false, did your husband sign NAFATA or not? You can't take credit for his administration and then not take credit for the failures too. And how exactly is Obama distorting your position on health care? You are for a mandate. You've said it yourself. You've said you'd go after the wages of people to get them on health care. You claim the strength of your plan is that 100% of people are covered and the way you are doing it is by compelling people to enroll. Really, what's the outrage about?

And then there's this business of running against hope and calling everyone who likes Obama naive. It hasn't worked so far and its not going to work. You really think running against change and hope is a platform for you?

Hillary, let me give you a few words of advice here. First, the math is not in your favor. You need to start thinking about your reputation and that of your husband. Is this really how you want to go out? Secondly, the ONLY shot you have is to convince people to vote FOR you because there is no anti-Barack Obama vote out there. This is an election where people are going to vote FOR someone and not against them. You have one week left.

I wonder which Hillary we will see tomorrow night?

The Mac Song

Someone made this song entirely of system sounds from Mac OS.

Thanks FSJ!

Star sightings

Darryl Hannah is sitting in 1st Class with me, but not next to me. There's also some woman that JG says was in Love Actually, but I don't remember her.

Is Obama making a mistake?

Obama has been in Wisconnsin all week. Polls have him alead of Hillary, but not by a lot. So you can understand why he campaigned there because he needs the delegates. But he gave Hillary an extra week in Texas. Was that so smart?

Looking at the polls. Obama is going to loose Ohio. That's a lot of delegates. He needs a good showing in Texas. I'm afraid his given Hillary too much time to get momentum in Texas.

But her bet is risky too. She's staking it all on Ohio and Texas. She's said she has to win both to go on. She's put all her chips on the Lone Star state as well. She's been campaigning all week in the south of the state which is heavily hispanic, a demo that does well for her, but is that really where the population is?

I think Obama has a shot at Texas. Houston and Dallas/Ft Worth have a large black community. And Austin has a big liberal white community that might go Obama. He could do well in all 3 cities.

I have to believe the Obama campaign knows what its doing because they have done an amazing job so far. They know where they need to win. But the science is not necessarily clear to me here and I'm a little worried that Obama should have gotten to Texas a few days ago.

NYC

On the way to the airport for NY Toy Fair. Its my first NY toy show. Hope to take pics and post a few. We'll see. These things get so crazy.

Saw a post of a Hasbro presentation of Indiana Jones online today. Great collectable figure line. Can't wait.

Night Kingdom

Jim Hill has details on a new Disney Park at WDW called the Night Kingdom. Its a private park that will only allow in a few thousand people a night. It sounds like an extension of the Animal Kingdom concept with guest interacting with live animals...but taken to the extreme. You zip line over a bed of hungry crocs. You hand feed a hippo. Tickets are $300. I can't wait. Hey Blue Sky Disney, give us more deets!

Ultimate Wall-E?

We had a little internal showing of one of our new projects. Someone took and picture and it got posted on a blog. Welcome to the 21st century. I really can't comment on this right now. But I will have full details on this blog the second I can talk about it. Promise.

Indy is back!

Okay its a shitty video cam job, but this first peak of Indy 4 had me jumping up and down. Fuck Star Wars the New Generation. This is the most exciting sequel of my life!

Clean Sweep

Obama crushed Hillary again yesterday. He won DC, Maryland, and Virginia all with over 60% of the vote. Maine and Maryland were previously Hillary territory so that's a big blow to her. He's now won 8 states in a row and all the experts agree that even with superdelegates, he's in the lead of total delegates. Things for Obama are going according to plan.

Next week, we have Wisconsin and word is that Hillary is bypassing it to make a Giuliani style camp out in Texas. Will it work? It is really here only hope. The last poll for Texas I saw was from 1/30 with Hillary and Obama 10 points apart and with Obama sharply gaining and Hillary slightly declining.

Its going to be hard for her to pull this out. The storyline is that her campaign is in trouble. Her message of being tested and more experienced is not working at all. Obama has the romance and the momentum. But Texas will be hard for him because even its liberals are conservative and there are still vestiges of the ol' boy Democratic Party there that love the Clinton's.

Still America loves a winner and right now, Obama is winning and Hillary is not. Its hard to see how she recaptures the momentum here but she has two weeks. I just hope Obama doesn't spend too much time in Wisconsin and gets to Texas because that and Ohio are much bigger prizes.

Obama wins Maine

That's a clean sweep for the weekend...in a state Hillary was supposed to win.

In other news, Hillary fired her campaign manager...but her campaign isn't in trouble or anything.

Delegates

No one seems to agree on the delegate count. Every source cites a different number. What is clear - Obama is ahead in elected delegates. CNN says he leads 908 to 877. She still leads in party insiders aka superdelegates but the margin is closing. The Washington Post has total delegates this morning at 1084 to 1057 with Hillary in a slight lead. There are 237 delegates up for grabs on Tuesday in DC, Maryland, and Virginia and Obama is ahead in the polls there. If he wins big there, he could be in the lead with total delegates with two weeks to go until what will likely be the final contest in March 4th with 444 delegates up for grabs primarily in Ohio and Texas. That's two weeks for him to have more momentum and that could really help him in these final states. But is it enough? This one's a nail biter.

Obama wins the night

Obama has won Nebraska, Louisiana, the Virgin Islands and Washington State handily. The closest state was Louisiana and that is 53/39. In the other states he had over 60% of the vote. He'll pick up a nice parsel of delegates and get closer to passing Hillary. By Tuesday, he'll probably pass her. Can she fight on if he beats her 8 contests in a row? No matter the delegate count, he's gaining. She's struggling to keep up.

Superdelegates

The NY Times has a good story about how superdelegates be the one who decide the Democratic nominee. Superdelegates are party insiders and office holders who automatically get an independent vote in the nomination process. Unsurprisingly, Hillary has the lead in superdelegates. So she thinks they should vote their conscience and Obama thinks they should vote the will of the voters of their states.

Obama says: "“My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates from the most voters in the country, that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters. I think it is also important for superdelegates to think about who will be in the strongest position to defeat John McCain in November and who will be in the strongest position to ensure that we are broadening the base, bringing people who historically have not gotten involved in politics into the fold.”

Hillary cleverly says: “Superdelegates are, by design, supposed to exercise independent judgment. But, of course, if Senator Obama and his campaign continue to push this position, which is really contrary to what the definition of a superdelegate has historically been, I will look forward to receiving the support of Senator Kennedy and Senator Kerry.”

Personally, I think the whole idea of superdelegates - the notion that the will of the voter cannot be trusted, that somehow we need to have all-knowing insiders temper the ignorant populace - is anti-democratic and, hey, isn't "democratic" the name of the party. What an enormous contradiction!

So I am with Obama on this one. This whole system is stupid and needs to be changed. But beyond this, if Obama wins the popular vote and the superdelegates over rule the populace, it will tear the party apart in a way that will not be healed for a long time. I can tell you right now that if Obama is ahead in elected delegates and does not get the nomination, I will vote for John McCain. And so will a lot of other people. And that's what these party insiders need to be worried about. Because McCain does very well with Independents and Democrats. But also because this should be the Democratic party's year. It has always been a party that snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Let's hope they don't do it this year.

In other news, Obama is projected to win Nebraska and Washington State as of now. Here's hoping he wins Louisiana too.

Ruhlman wants his percolator back!

Ruhlman has a post in which he exposes the modern coffee maker for what it is and extols the virtues of the old school GE percolator:

It astonishes me that I have to defend this sleek, 9-cup wonder. I serve generic decaf to guests and they’re begging to know what kind of coffee I buy. Swear to God. I haul out the big green can to prove it. Coffee snoobs will say percolated coffee is "over-extracted." I call it very strong, rich coffee that’s piping hot and stays hot without burning. That its biggest advantage—percolators keep the coffee HOT, auto-drips burn it. And yet the GE model with its glass top and elegant drip-free spout has long been retired.

Counting Delegates

Everyone has a different delegate count, but pretty much everyone agrees on the big story: Obama and Hillary are in a dead heat. Obama is ahead in delegates and some even have him ahead in Superdelegates. This weekend should be good to Obama and could be the point where he pulls ahead.

Why focus groups are dumb

FSJ posted this. Someone focus grouped Apple's famous 1984 ad to see what reaction it would get. What happened was proof why focus groups are dumb and you will never get anything brilliant out of them.

"I like commercials with chimpanzees in them."
"Maybe they should have someone busting dance moves."

Cringley on MicroHoo

Bob Cringley has a great article on the real motivation behind the potential Microsoft-Yahoo meger:

What we have here at Microsoft is a generational transition like we've seen in many other industries as leading companies go from robber barons to industry stalwarts. Look at railroads and oil in U.S. business history and you'll see the same thing. And just as in those industries, Gates and Ballmer know that Microsoft's style has to change with the times, but even more importantly to them Microsoft has to change because they simply lack confidence that any successor can do as well at playing hardball as Gates and Ballmer did.

Think of it like the generational change in command of an organized crime family. Tony Soprano wants the best both for his gang and for his son A.J., but does Tony really think he can count on Anthony Jr.'s ability to put a cap in some future rival? Not likely. So Tony will push A.J toward investment banking and away from loan-sharking.

Same for Microsoft, which with its Yahoo acquisition will quite consciously try to convert itself into the next General Electric, a company that uses its sheer economic power to make most of its money. All those golf games with Jack Welch were for a purpose. That's why Microsoft is assuming debt to buy Yahoo. It is a logical thing to do and will be accepted by Wall Street much more easily than if Ballmer explained that Microsoft was restructuring and acquiring debt to make it possible for the company to not just pay $44.6 billion for Yahoo, but probably another $100 billion for the other acquisitions that will shortly happen to position Microsoft in the GE space, where it will be protected from bad guesses on technology shifts.

Bush's Big Government

Good article from the NY Times about how Bush has grown the size of government faster than he has grown the private sector. Its just another example of how Bush has betrayed Republican values and killed the conservative movement. Also interesting, the only person who has done as poor a job of managing the economy since WWII - Bush Sr. For all those out there thinking, hey maybe Jeb Bush would be a good candidate one day, why would anyone give this guy a chance? His family has screwed us up enough as it is.

American Idol at Walt Disney World. Snore.

Disney announced that it is adding a new American Idol attraction to Walt Disney World's Disney Hollywood Studios later this year. Yes, later this year, so that tells you how long its taking to develop. The attraction will be a singing contest amongst park guests who will be judged by a panel of "experts". The winners get to participate in a nighttime "finale" performance.

Now I love American Idol as much as the next guy, but how lame is this? First of all, I feel like I've stepped into a time machine and been transported to the pre-Iger days of cheap and hastily put up attractions. I thought with Lasseter on board we weren't going to be doing stuff like this any more? With the move away from MGM, I was kind of hoping that we would move past the ugly days of other people's IP - with the exception of George Lucas - in a Disney park. Secondly, how can Anne Sweeney be happy about this when Idol crushes everything else on television when its on? How can it be remotely good for ABC to build the Idol franchise? Thirdly, Simon Cowell is leaving the show in two seasons (so he says) and that will be the end of it, because - let's face it - we all really watch for Simon. What ever money they are investing in this - not to mention valuable space - seemingly could be used for something better and longer term than Rupert Murdoch's crown jewel.

This would have been a great deal for Six Flags, but I'm not sure this is a fit for Disney.

The Conservative Bankruptcy

Harold Meyerson has a great column in The Washington Post today about the McCain phenomenon and what it means for conservatives. His conclusion, the conservative agenda is out of gas.

With his preemptive war and seemingly permanent occupation in Iraq, and his attempt to privatize Social Security, George W. Bush pushed American conservatism past the point where the American people were willing to go -- pushed them, in fact, to the point where they recoiled at the conservative project. And with that, American conservatism shuddered to a halt. In the 2005-06 congressional session, Republicans still controlled both houses of Congress, yet they introduced no major legislation.

This exhaustion of conservatism has been apparent all along in the Republican presidential contest, where the chief point of agreement among the leading candidates has been to make permanent both the Bush tax cuts for the rich and our occupation of Iraq. The conservative agenda has been winnowed down to supporting what remains of Bushism. That's not only a losing formula for November, it also means that intellectually, conservatism is running on empty.

So true. Conservatives are out of ideas and out of candidates. James Carville said it the other day on Meet The Press. The Republican base was Jesus freaks, nutty supply siders, and conservative talk show hosts. None of those people are getting their way in McCain and that basically exposes that they are not as important to the Republican party as they have told us for years.

You can't have a permanent revolution. Russia taught us that.

This is a transformative race.

Is Guy Hands crazy...or crazy like a fox?

Warner Music announced earnings yesterday...and they sucked. The good news was, revenue was up considerably. CD sales were up 18% to $950M. Music publishing was up slightly. And digital sales were up 41%. Despite all this good news, the company recorded a $16M loss versus an $18M profit last year. Okay so where's the problem? In a word, expenses. They took an $18M goodwill charge but also had much higher SG&A.

Guy Hands has been on a controversial tear at EMI of slashing costs. Some think its genius. Others think he's killing the company. Some think its the right idea but he's going too far.

But when you look at results like this, you can't help but think that there's nothing wrong with Warner's revenues, they just can't run their damn business right. Why in the name of God would you increase SG&A in this climate? Warner's management should be fired and they should put someone in there with a brain.

Hangover

Super Duper Tuesday is over and it resolved very little. The day that pundits proclaimed it would be all over has passed with no decision on the Democratic side and only a little more resolution on the Republican side.

Obama beat Hillary in elected delegates - 603 to 590! He has closed the gap with her on ground that was hers to loose. He won a surprise victory in Connecticut - 51% to 47%. And he narrowed Hillary's win in New Jersey to a 10 point gap. These were supposed to be states, along with New York, that she won with huge margins. That didn't happen. And he did the same thing in California, closing that to a 10 point gap, in another state she was supposed to win hands down. He won more states than her. He won 14 of the 22 states up for grabs. She won only 8, but they were big states. He won in the North and the South. The East and the West. He won blacks hands down and also won whites and young people. Where he did not do as well were seniors and hispanics, who hurt him considerably in California. But any way you look at it, it was a big night for Obama and it was NOT the coronation Hillary was hoping for. But he also did not pull ahead of her. Yet.

Last night, Hillary's agents were out in force trying to spin this as a win for her. Paul Begala was on CNN as an analyst where he was supposed to be an objective observer and not her talking head said "Call Super Tuesday for Hillary!" Fortunately, he got called out on that and I don't think anyone can say the numbers bare that out.

Obama's problem now is in the Super Delegates. There she wins hands down, 193 to 106. That puts her at a total of 783 to 709. Super Delegates are basically party dignitaries, mostly elected officials, that are not elected and can vote however they want. If things keep going the way they are and the candidates go to the election split, I cannot imagine that the part elite would put her over the top. That would tear the part apart. But Howard Dean is really stupid, so who knows. This could get very ugly between the Super Delegates and the potential of Florida and Michigan getting counted. There could be a lot of backroom dealing that keeps Obama from getting the nod.

The other thing that strikes me is that I do not think Hillary, if she gets the nod, cannot make Obama the VP candidate. They have split the party. And there are a lot of people, like me, that might go for McCain if she gets the nod and Obama doesn't come along because I am still so pissed at her from South Carolina.

But neither Dem candidate has even half the delegates they need, so this is going to go on for quite a while until someone breaks through.

On to the Republicans. Its obvious at this point that McCain is going to be the nominee. He's got a 2 to 1 delegate advantage over Romney and he only needs to get 1191 to win vs Democrats who need over 2000. And with so many GOP contests as winner takes all, he is only going to extend that lead. But the big story of the night was that it was not a coronation for him either. In a big surprise, Huckabee came back very strongly in the south where he won Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, West Virginia, and his home state of Arkansas. So he's staying in the race for a few more rounds and that's bad news for Romney. I think Huckabee may even have a chance in the big delegate state of Texas.

All this makes Romney look pretty bad. Over the last week, he has been stomping around claiming that he is the real conservative candidate and he would be winning all these states if Huckabee were not out there sucking up his vote, as if he had a god given right to those voters. What an arrogant prick! The South taught him a thing or two. Let me tell you something folks as someone who is from a conservative bible thumping Southern household. The South will not vote for a Mormon. You are talking to people who think that the Bible is the literal perfect and complete word of God. They don't believe that Jesus vacationed with the Indians. Romney just ain't going to work in the South and that's a huge part of the conservative base which he claims he owns. As long as Huckabee is in this, and make no mistake he is in this now, Romney is screwed in the South.

Romney did win a few states. He won Alaska and Montana, aka places with no delegates. He won Colorado, Minnesota, and North Dakota. And - surprise, surprise - he won Massachusetts and Utah. Now that we are past all the states that have a lot of Mormons or where he or his dad were Governors, his chances are not looking so hot. Make no mistake. This was a rout for Romney. From here on out, this is about ego for him. And how much longer will Ann let him keep gambling the family fortune on a pipe dream.

McCain is winning the nomination. That is clear now. The only question is whether Huckabee will be his nominee.

What a week

Things are getting really busy at work and its getting harder to post. But what a week it has been.

Edwards and Rudy are out. It looks like McCain will win big tomorrow and put an end to Romney. God I hope so! I can't stand that guy. There was a great article yesterday, I think in Time, about the "I Hate Romney" club which basically said that all the other Republican campaigns despise Romney and are working together to make sure he doesn't get the nomination. The guy is totally phony. He stands there and says in his smung smarmy way that McCain is not a conversative when he himself has held just about every "liberal" position and more that McCain has. The guy will say anything to get elected. So I hope McCain puts him in a box tomorrow.

Obama is catching up to Hillary in the polls and quickly. He has momentum and she does not. But will it be enough? Some polls show California has closed to a 3-4 point spread. If Obama wins California, Hillary is done. Even if he comes in close, its going to be hard for her because she was counting on the electoral treasure trove. Let's just hope Obama keeps his mo and people don't hesitate when they walk in the polling place. Not sure what impact the Maria Shriver endorsement will have for him, but he is picking up endorsements left and right. Here's hoping that Al Gore jumps in to endorse Obama today, though I'm sure the chances are slim.

In other news, Microsoft made an unsolicited bid to buy Yahoo. As Fake Steve Jobs said this is like tying the 2nd and 3rd place racers together and hoping they can run faster. Ballmer would have to be a much better manager than I think he is to make that a winning combo. But for Microsoft, I don't think this is about winning. Its about grabbing a bigger piece of the Internet pie and moving past MSN which is just never going to happen. Number 2 could be a good spot from Microsoft's perspective.